WEEK 9 NFL TRENDS

Trends are an integral part of my weekly process, as I dig into the spot and see what teams have not only done this season, but historically, especially for teams that have had long tenured coaches. Caution: I am not someone who blindly bets trends if my brain tells me something completely different. Let’s dive in. 7 trends / stats to help you in week 9.

  1. Patrick Mahomes is 19-6 against the spread as a dog or favorite of -3 or less, including 5-0 ATS when coming off of a loss. The Chiefs are also 13-2 straight up off a loss since 2019. The Chiefs are currently -1.5 vs the Dolphins in Germany.

  1. The Texans and Bucs are a combined 13-3 to the UNDER this season. The Bucs are also 5-0 to the UNDER as an underdog this season. The Texans are currently -3 and the total is sitting at 40 in Houston.
  1. The Ravens are 17-11 to the UNDER in home games since 2020. In the 11 games where the total has been 45 or lower in that same timespan, the UNDER is 8-3 in those games. The total currently sits at 44.5 for Ravens vs Seahawks on Sunday. 
  1. Since 2019, the Ravens are 21-9 straight up when favored by 3 or more at home, however they are just 12-18 against the spread in those same 30 games. If you look at just since 2021, they are 11-4 straight up, and 5-10 against the spread. Additionally, Pete Carroll is 11-8 ATS when getting more than a field goal on the road since 2015. The Ravens are currently -5.5 hosting Seattle on Sunday.
  1. Nick Sirianni & Jalen Hurts have been covering machines at home since the start of last season. 12-2 straight up, and 9-4-1 ATS in those same 14 games. When they are favored by 7 or less, they are 8-1 straight up, and 7-1-1 ATS. When favored by 3 or less, they have won and covered all 3. Philly is currently 3 point home favorites to Dallas.
  1. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bengals are 7-2 straight up, and 6-2-1 ATS when favored at home by 7 or less. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread when the total is at 47 or above. Joe Burrow for his career is also 19-10-1 ATS when favored by 3 or less or as an underdog. The Bengals are -1.5 at home vs the Bills, with the total being set at 50.5
  1. The Giants and Raiders are a combined 13-3 to the under this season. NFL games with a total of 38 or lower are 36-20 to the UNDER so far this season. The total is currently sitting at 37.5 in Las Vegas for Sunday. 
Give us a listen on YouTube for our week 9 best bets!

Austin Kasick

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