Let’s breakdown the week 9 slate! Reasoning for all my plays are below.

Early play:

Bucs +3

I think this is a good spot for Tampa Bay here, off of a mini bye following a TNF loss to Buffalo last week. CJ Stroud has heavily regressed over the last 3 weeks, not clearing a 90 passer rating in any of the last three contests. Todd Bowles should be able to scheme up some things and continue to throw off the timing of this Houston offense. The Texans are 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite, and the Bucs really need this game to fight and continue to stay in the NFC South division race. With a low total hovering around 40 here, I think you are getting two pretty even teams. With the Texans coming off of a crushing blow to the Panthers in a very winnable, the morale could be pretty low this week, so give me the free 3 points with the Bucs here, I think they win outright today. 

Afternoon plays:

Eagles -3

Love this spot for Philly here, as everybody saw Sam Howell light up this secondary last week, as well as the Cowboys rolling on the Rams. This is where you want to back the Eagles, as they are 7-1-1 ATS at home favored by 7 or less over the last two seasons, including 3-0 when it is -3 or less. Dak Prescott for his career is just 17-26 ATS vs teams with winning records, compared to 28-13-2 ATS vs teams with losing records. This is what Dallas does, beat up on bad teams and pound their chest with margin of victory, but we have not seen that they can hang with a team of Philly’s caliber when they bring their A-game. If Jalen Hurts’s knee can hold up and his mobility is not affected, Philly wins comfortably by 7-10 today.

Giants Raiders Under 37.5

This is going to be an ugly, ugly game. A lot has changed this week in Las Vegas since we recorded on Tuesday night, but I do still like this under. Daniel Jones is attempting to come back this week from a neck injury, but I do expect some rust, and the Giants to be conservative with him running the ball and taking additional hits. I think we see a lot of Saquon Barkley today vs a Raiders run D who just got gashed by Gibbs on MNF. With Darren Waller out, I do not see a bunch of explosives coming through the air for the G men, so it truly may be Saquon or bust today. Looking at the other side of the ball, I think that the Raiders will rely on Josh Jacobs to take the pressure off of a rookie QB making his second career start, and get some layup targets to Adams & Meyers and get them involved early. I think the Giants D continues to play well and this game stays under. These teams are a combined 13-3 to the under this year and I do not think they can make a line low enough for this one.

Night play:

Bengals -2.5

I know the entire country is on this one, but I do still think Cincy is the right side here. Look, Joe Burrow is all the way back, as I was very impressed with a dominating performance at San Fran this past Sunday. The Bills appeared to “get right” this past week after dismantling the Bucs, but I think this is the week where their defensive injuries really start to show, and not in a good way. I had these teams as pretty even coming into this season, and the Bengals are hitting their stride while the Bills are reeling. Joe Burrow is 19-10-1 ATS when favored by 3 or less in his career, including 5-0 straight up in home night games. Cincinnati dominates tonight and fully puts themselves back on the map as a legit SB contender.

Austin Kasick

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