Colts -1.5

We head to Germany one final time this season for my favorite favorite this week. And if I have said it once I have said it a million times. Mac Jones sucks at football. This New England team continues to be overvalued. After 20 years of Bill Belichick dominating this league it’s been 3 years and Vegas still has not figured out how to properly rate this Pats team. In their last 16 games, the Patriots are 3-13 ATS. Mac Jones is 4-15 ATS as a dog in his career. Favorites in international games are 31-10-1 SU and 27-15 ATS. Gardner Minshew has proven he can play good ball at times, and this Colts team is frisky and somehow still in the race for an AFC playoff spot at 4-5 (kind of). I love the trends to continue here and the better team to take care of business in Germany.

Browns +6

All the Ravens truthers are going to hate this one… But this is exactly why I love it. And simply put, this is too many points for a divisional game, let alone an AFC North game. Every year we see a team completely dominate for a short period of time and roll teams with ease, and everyone crowns them the Super Bowl champions. We had that happen already this season with the 49ers, and who shut down that run? Oh yeah… the Cleveland Browns. This Browns defense is legit and Deshaun Watson looked like he was taking steps in the right direction last week. Oddly enough, the place to back the Ravens historically is on the road and as dogs. Since ‘21 BAL is just 9-14-1 ATS after a win and 7-9 ATS inside the division. I love Cleveland here in a 20-16 or 21-17 type of game.

Broncos +7.5

Some are saying this is an emotional bet after my failed GOTY and to that i say, no comment. I think Josh Allen is a good guy, but I am so tired of hearing about this Bills team. I am ignoring them for the rest of the season until they lose in the WC round or lose by 50 in the divisional round to the Chiefs. Truth is, they have a ton of holes, their defense can allow explosive plays, Josh Allen turns the ball over, and they cannot run the ball. There has been too many “bounce back spots” with this Bills team where the line sits around 7 or 8 and Vegas continues to get it wrong. Buffalo is 3-6 ATS this year and 5-8 ATS as a home favorite in the last 2 years. I’ll back a Denver team coming off a bye who looks much improved coming off a win vs. the darling Chiefs.

Packers / Steelers Under 38.5

I have no idea how the Steelers are 5-3. Listen, I know Mike Tomlin is a good coach. But this offense is anemic. Kenny Pickett (probably a good guy) is not good. He continues to make drives in the 4th quarter to win games, but this offense and the story of Matt Canada continuing to have a job baffles me. And the Packers… much to my enjoyment… STINK. Offensively, GB sits at 22nd in scoring (20.0 PPG) and the Steelers rank 30th in the same category (16.6). Pittsburgh has been an under machine, going 7-1 to the under so far this season. And in these teams last 12 games, the under is 11-1. I think both these teams are bad, and when that is the case, hammer the under. 

Nate Self

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