Fresh off of a 4-1 week on the pod, let’s dive into week 10 and take a look at some angles we like today.

Jaguars +3

Massive game here, as the Jags and Niners meet in Jacksonville after both teams are coming off of a bye. Trends favor the Jags here, as they are 16-11 ATS since the start of last season when Pederson took over, including 5-1 ATS as a home dog, winning all 5 games outright. Shanahan is 9-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3+ and only 3-4 ATS off of a bye in his career. Looking at the field, there is real concern that Brock Purdy is still not right after his concussion scares. Sometimes these things can affect guys for 4-6 weeks, so their QB play does remain a question mark for SF. Deebo Samuel & Trent Williams will both be back which is a huge lift for a SF team that was reeling before the bye. I just love getting a full FG with a great HC & QB combo at home off of a bye. Fire up the Jags in an underdog ML round robin as well, this is a coin flip game to me.

Bengals -6.5

The line has moved against us here by a point, as there is a chance both Chase & Higgins are both out today. Would love for Chase to go here, but this is really backing a Cincy DC that has come up with two excellent game plans in back to back weeks vs San Fran & Buffalo, and is getting to go up against the most trendy QB in the NFL right now in CJ Stroud. Stroud has been much better at home this season and as the weeks go on, more and more film is out for teams to see. I am backing Joe Burrow to move the ball up and down the field, even with his two top guys out and for the defense to throw some different looks at Stroud and keep the Texans under 20. CIN are 8-2 ATS as a -7 or less home favorite coming off of a win, so when things are right in Cincy, they get on these crazy hot streaks. Back Joe to get it done today, 24-16 Bengals.

Cowboys -16.5 / -8.5 1H

This is a bad, bad spot for the New York Giants. Daniel Jones & Tyrod Taylor are both out, leaving them with Tommy Devito at the helm. This could be the start of a sneaky tank mode, as the Giants truly have nothing to play for, and are going up vs a pissed off Dallas team on Sunday. The Cowboys own the Giants, as they are 10-4-1 ATS vs them since 2016 when Dak came into the league. Since 2021, the Cowboys are 11-1 ATS off of a loss, covering by an average margin of 12.8, which is the best mark in the NFL over that timeframe. They have won their 3 home games by 20, 35, & 23, covering by an average of 19 points. This is what Dak & Co. does, they come home and bully little brother and make themselves feel good. This will be 20-0 at half, and a 34-3 final. Book it. This is one of my favorite plays of the NFL season.

Raiders Team Total Under 17.5

This is a smash spot to fade the Raiders here, as they got the dead cat bounce after benching Jimmy G and firing Josh McDaniels and rolled the Giants this past week. The Jets lost 27-6 on primetime and everybody is off of them heading into this matchup. It was an incredibly misleading box score, as the Chargers offense really did not get going for most of the game. They have a top 3 defense and get to be pissed off all week, chomping at the bit to get after a rookie QB who has only made two starts. Zach WIlson only has 1 INT in his last 5 games, so the Jets should be able to run the ball, play field position and win this game 13-10.

Austin Kasick

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